Explaining and evaluating price volatility and price levels in world agricultural markets (Tienda española)

A vector autoregressive approach

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The worldwide explosions of agricultural commodity and staple food prices in the years 2007/08 and the subsequent recession-related decline in 2009 have not only surprised many market observers, but has also caused an intensive discussion about the causes, the consequences and the necessary policy responses. The new price spike in the years 2011 until 2013 and the current price crisis, especially for dairy and meat products since 2014/15, revived this debate again and raised the question, of how to explain and to evaluate such extreme level shifts and volatilities of agricultural prices, and where the prices move in the long run.