Ein systemdynamischer Modellierungsansatz zur Untersuchung des technischen und ökologischen Potenzials dezentraler Energieversorgung (English shop)

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Triggered by the EU directives on the deregulation of energy markets and the ensuing national legislation, the first steps towards restructuring the energy supply system were taken through the abolition of regional monopolies and the corporate unbundling according to supply functions (generation, transmission and distribution). Decentralised energy systems based on renewable energy sources and combined heat and power, as well as “virtual power plants”, are increasingly entering the energy industry. A structural change in energy supply has thus begun, the end of which is not yet foreseeable. This confronts both energy supply companies and grid operators with new challenges. The investigation of decentralised energy supply structures requires flexible and practice-oriented tools that take account of the interdisciplinary character of energy supply. The aim of this work is to describe a suitable and practice-oriented analytical tool for conceptual systems research in the energy field and to apply it to decentralised energy supply in order to investigate the technical and ecological potential. To this end, aspects of present-day energy supply are first described in order to reveal the problem areas of the existing energy supply system. It is shown that an energy transition is unavoidable in the medium to long term. Decentralised energy supply is introduced as a possible approach to shaping future energy supply. For this purpose, decentralised energy supply is defined and its structure and important technical aspects are described in detail. The challenges for companies in the business field of decentralised energy supply and the resulting requirements for systems analysis are presented. For the analysis of decentralised supply structures, various analytical tools are presented and assessed against the background of the application field of conceptual systems research. System Dynamics is introduced as a suitable and practice-oriented modelling concept. In order to investigate the technical and ecological potential of decentralised energy systems, the System Dynamics model DEV is developed and implemented in the simulation environment iThink™. Considerations regarding model validation and verification, the possible applications as well as the restrictions and limitations of the model are discussed. The simulation results based on the previously defined supply scenarios serve to illustrate the model’s performance and to discuss the technical and ecological potential of decentralised energy supply structures.