Modellgestützte und regional differenzierte Analyse der Weiterentwicklung des Agrarsektors in der Republik Belarus unter verschiedenen agrarpolitischen Rahmenbedingungen (English shop)

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The aim of this dissertation is, on the one hand, to develop a multi-product, regionally differentiated agricultural sector model as an instrument for policy analysis. On the other hand, this work specifically aims at quantifying the following scenarios: (1) the possible consequences of both a WTO accession of the Republic of Belarus and a WTO liberalisation; (2) the potential effects of the formation of a customs union between the Republic of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan; (3) the possible consequences of both an EU accession of the Republic of Belarus and an EU-Belarus customs union; and (4) the welfare-economic assessment of these internal and external agricultural reforms from the perspective of the Republic of Belarus.

A numerical, comparative-static partial equilibrium model based on product differentiation is developed, which bears the name Bel-ASim and in which trade flows are represented using the Armington approach. The following countries and regions are taken into account in the model: Republic of Belarus, Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, other CIS countries, European Union and the rest of the world. The model covers the agricultural and food sector of the Republic of Belarus from agricultural production through dairy processing to foreign trade and consumption. The regions Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, other CIS countries, European Union and rest of the world are represented in the model in a simplified manner. Cobb-Douglas type functions are used to represent import demand and export supply in these regions.

In order to take into account the locational characteristics of agricultural production in the Republic of Belarus, the model is developed as a regionalised approach. The regional breakdown is primarily based on a delimitation according to administrative criteria (oblast level). Based on this classification, analyses can be carried out for six oblasts as well as for the aggregate agricultural and food sector of the Republic of Belarus.

The model is based on neoclassical theory. Economically rational behaviour of the agents is assumed: for producers the hypothesis of profit maximisation applies, for consumers that of utility maximisation. In representing agricultural supply and consumer demand for food, the model draws on behavioural systems derived from flexible functional forms. The supply and demand systems at the dairy processing stage are represented in the model by means of isoelastic functions. Differentiated supply and differentiated demand as well as differentiated trade flows are modelled in a three-stage procedure using the Armington approach.

The policy instruments that can be simulated with the model comprise minimum farm-gate prices, maximum domestic market prices, production quotas, trade tariffs, export subsidies, direct product-linked subsidies, input subsidies, general subsidies and tariff rate quotas. The model allows the calculation of welfare and distributional effects with regard to producers, consumers, quota holders, taxpayers and society as a whole. The full version of the model is written in GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) and programmed according to the “Mixed Complementarity Problem” (MCP) approach.

On the basis of the model, exemplary simulations are carried out which relate to current issues within the liberalisation and integration intentions of the Republic of Belarus. In total, nine policy scenarios are simulated. The simulation analyses in this study consist of three parts: firstly, the simulations for the base period “2006/2007”; secondly, comparative simulations for the base periods from “2005/2006” to “2007/2008”; and thirdly, the sensitivity analyses.

The results of the simulations can be summarised as follows. In the welfare positions of the liberalisation scenarios (complete trade liberalisation in the Republic of Belarus, WTO accession of the Republic of Belarus and WTO agricultural liberalisation with the Republic of Belarus) it becomes clear that agricultural producer surpluses develop negatively on average, because producer incentive prices and production volumes decrease. Dairies and consumers gain in welfare and the budget develops positively. In all liberalisation alternatives the total welfare of the Belarusian economy increases. The results show that the elimination of production subsidies in the Republic of Belarus constitutes the essential policy change of the liberalisation scenarios with respect to the effect on the state budget.

In the integration scenarios (both participation of the Republic of Belarus in a customs union with Russia and Kazakhstan and participation of the Republic of Belarus in a preferential trade zone with the EU), it is primarily Belarusian consumers who gain, because they can benefit from facilitated imports from the trading partners. The dairy processing industry also benefits from the integration processes as a result of better market access. A dismantling of tariff and non-tariff trade barriers in these scenarios leads on average to welfare losses for agricultural producers and to a burden on the state budget. In the above-mentioned integration scenarios, an increase in the total welfare of the Belarusian economy is to be expected.

In the case of an EU accession of the Republic of Belarus, it becomes clear that agricultural producer surpluses develop negatively. Milk producers can benefit from the adopted EU market organisation system. Consumers lose consumer surplus due to increased consumer prices. Since market protection in the Republic of Belarus increases, the accession of the Republic of Belarus to the EU results in total welfare losses.

If the Republic of Belarus accedes to the EU and the EU implements a complete dismantling of protection, welfare losses arise for agricultural holdings and the dairy processing industry. Consumers gain consumer surplus and the budget develops positively. The results show that the total welfare of the economy deteriorates as a result of the policy changes in this case.

From the comparison of the results calculated on the basis of different base periods, it becomes clear that the welfare changes in the scenarios remain stable with respect to the different data bases and can be explained by the policy changes of this period. An exception is the dairy processing industry, because the producer surpluses for dairies behave somewhat less stably. This is due to the model’s reaction to the initial situation of the base period.

At the end of the work, the simulation analyses are complemented by detailed sensitivity analyses with alternative values for supply and demand elasticities and for the Armington parameters. From these analyses it follows, among other things, that the Bel-ASim model reacts to changes in these parameters in such a way that the influence on the overall result is relatively small.

Finally, the discussed simulation results provide statements and policy recommendations for the design of Belarusian agricultural policy.