Trend Receiver – qualifizierte Visionskraft (Volume 45) (English shop)

Kriterien und Vorgehensweisen der Befragtenauswahl und Dialoggestaltung bei Studien zu zukünftigen Konzepten am Beispiel der AUDI AG

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When decisions have to be made today about products and investments that will only reach the market in a few years’ time, there is often uncertainty regarding changing customer expectations and market conditions. Market-representative surveys often provide a good knowledge base. Nevertheless, long time horizons and complex questions concerning new, unfamiliar products frequently overtax study participants selected on a market-representative basis.

The selection of study participants in studies on future topics and future concepts was identified by Audi’s market and trend research as a field with considerable potential for optimisation, for which no satisfactory concept suitable for corporate practice existed.

Engaging with this problem ultimately leads to three research questions, which are examined in this dissertation project using the case of AUDI AG as an example, but which are equally relevant for other companies and industries:

1. Who are the ideal respondents in studies on future concepts?
2. How can these people be found?
3. How should the dialogue with these people be designed?

Building on preparatory empirical work comprising 34 interviews with experts and Audi managers as well as an extensive quantitative study, an in-depth examination of the concept of trends and of the emergence of the new and processes of change is undertaken. The attempt is made to think the topics of trends, innovation, motives and values together in a differentiated manner.

From observations and analytical concepts of processes of change and of the diffusion or normalisation of the new, a bridge is built to the question of which people play an important role within these processes. On the basis of an examination of 20 existing concepts and models in the field of trends, innovation, creative activity, diffusion and exertion of influence, a typology of the ‘agents of the new’ is developed.

In this way, the Trend Receiver concept presented and developed in the course of this work is finally specified, and affinities, overlaps and demarcations in relation to already existing concepts such as lead user, avant-garde, early adopter, cutting edger etc. are established. At the same time, it is shown why the Trend Receiver concept meets the requirement of identifying the best possible respondents for studies on future concepts.

The profiles of Trend Receivers emerge in a context-specific manner, depending on the corporate questions that arise in the development of and in decisions on a future concept. At the same time, characteristics become apparent that are decisive for very different Trend Receiver profiles.

How can Trend Receivers be found? The examination of various methodological-theoretical approaches and studies on the search for respondents leads to the insight that Trend Receivers can be found considerably more efficiently by means of pyramiding than by means of the screening customary in market research. On the basis of search profiles, intermediaries are approached who must fulfil two criteria: on the one hand, they should be able to relate the search profile to suitable real persons, and on the other hand, they should have access to suitable persons through their network.

In this way, 47 Trend Receivers were identified within the framework of four case studies at AUDI AG – these are evaluated in the work with regard to methodological observations from applied practice. Studies on the Audi A1, on the future of the automotive premium market, on the next A3 and on the Audi Q3 serve as case studies on the applicability of the Trend Receiver approach, which is further developed on the basis of the findings thus obtained. Among other things, it becomes apparent that the procedure of searching for Trend Receivers is far more similar to the practice of headhunters than to conventional recruiting methods of market research. Partial support from executive search consultants can consequently be helpful for Trend Receiver identification and also contributed to the success of the Audi practical applications.

These practical applications also serve to reflect on the question of the appropriate design of the dialogue with Trend Receivers (third research question).

Finally, generally valid stages of Trend Receiver studies are outlined. Strategies are addressed as to how, in practical applications of Trend Receiver studies, the balancing act between the necessity of a context-specific, tailor-made approach on the one hand and efficient operationalisation on the other can be managed. In addition, the epistemological basis of the Trend Receiver concept is discussed and it is shown why Kant’s concept of reflective judgement serves as an essential epistemological reference in this regard.

The outlook is finally provided by a sketch of the Audi Trend Receiver Net as an example of an international implementation approach for the concept based on the present study.